Socio-economic Impact Assessment of Cambodia–Thailand Border Conflict

Context. Cambodia experienced two major conflict-induced displacement waves in 2025. The first escalation, beginning 24 July, displaced over 172,000 people across Preah Vihear, Siem Reap and Oddar Meanchey. Following a 13-point ceasefire on 8 August, more than 85 per cent of displaced households returned by early September; however, 16,049 people remained displaced by early October, declining to just over 2,000 by late October. Renewed hostilities on 7 December triggered a second, much larger wave. At its peak on 25-27 December, the National Committee for Disaster Management (NCDM) reported 644,589 displaced people (336,302 women and 204,992 children), with 347,346 in over 200 temporary sites and 297,243 staying with host communities. As of 15 January, the NCDM reported that 141,850 people continue to live in 102 displacement sites or with relatives across the country, demonstrating a significant reduction from the peak of displacement on 27 December. The conflict severely disrupted essential services, including the closure of 883 schools and suspension of 50+ health facilities in border areas. These shocks coincided with the return of around 900,000 Cambodian migrant workers from Thailand by late September, sharply reducing remittances and placing significant pressure on local labour markets, public services and communities.

Objectives. The assessment’s primary objective is to quantify the immediate and medium-term socio-economic impacts of the conflict on internally displaced persons and returnees, and to generate group-specific profiles, challenges and needs to inform practical, actionable recovery pathways. 

Methodology. A mixed-methods design integrates: microanalysis via structured surveys conducted from October to November 2025 involving 674 internally displaced households (204 in Banteay Meanchey, 236 in Preah Vihear and 234 in Oddar Meanchey) and 1,055 returnee households (in Banteay Meanchey, Battambang, Siem Reap, Takeo, Oddar Meanchey, Prey Veng, Pursat, Pailin, Koh Kong and Preah Vihear); and macromodelling using a Cambodia social accounting matrix (SAM) to assess economic impacts across three scenarios: Fragmented Recovery, Managed Reintegration and Transformative Recovery.